Short answer
A forecast says what someone expects or wants to be popular; an observed trend is a measured change in what was made, sold or used, from a source with a stated sample. The test is the evidence behind the claim: a named population, a period, a before-and-after figure and independence from whoever profits from the colour. Very little colour-trend coverage passes it — US and global car colour data is the main public exception.
Ask of any trend claim: what was counted, where, when, and by whom? An observed trend answers all four — 'white, black, grey and silver made up 80.4% of 2025 model-year used cars sold in the US, analysed from more than 22 million sales'. A forecast answers none of them, because it is about the future and its evidence is expert judgement. Many articles sit between: a designer says a colour 'is having a moment', citing what they have seen. That is observation of a kind, but with no sample and no baseline it cannot distinguish a trend from a vivid memory. Colourwise labels these three differently: forecast, observed market data, and press observation of limited strength.
Car colour is unusual in having decades of independent data: paint suppliers publish annual popularity reports, and analysts of used-car sales can reconstruct colour share by model year. The iSeeCars series is useful here precisely because it is not produced by a colour forecaster. Set against the announcements, it is sobering. Green was named about a dozen times by the authorities in this dataset, yet green's share of US cars fell from 13.4% of 1996 models to 2.2% of 2025 models. Red fell from 20.1% to 7.0%. The one clear colour gain was grey, which Pantone did not name until 2021, twenty years into its rise. Cars are not the sector most announcements address, so this does not refute them — but it shows how independent a real market can be from the forecasts around it.
Some announcements are explicitly observations dressed as forecasts. Benjamin Moore's creative director said Breath of Fresh Air was named for 2014 because the team had been seeing it across several environments. Pantone's director has described looking for colours already being used more broadly than before. That is candid, and it changes how to read the pick: it is a claim that something is already rising, from people well placed to notice, but still without a published count. Treat it as an informed tip about the present, and look for data before treating it as a trend.
A green that is rising in paint can be falling in cars, and a pink everywhere in fashion can be absent from kitchens. Colour adoption is sector-specific because each sector has its own constraints: resale value and paint technology for cars, the cost of repainting for homes, a single season's life for clothes. An observation only supports a claim about the sector it measured. The same applies in reverse: a paint maker's colour of the year says nothing about cars, and car data says nothing about walls. This section records each observation with its sector and geography for that reason, and never transfers it to another.
| Family | Announcements in dataset | Car lifecycle reading | US car share, 1996 → 2025 models |
|---|---|---|---|
| Green | 12 | historical | 13.4% → 2.2% |
| Red | 7 | declining | 20.1% → 7.0% |
| Orange | 9 | emerging | rose, to about 0.3% |
| Grey | 1 | mainstream | 3.6% → 22.9% |
Each statement is labelled by kind — established fact, a standard’s requirement, observed market data, a convention, or Colourwise’s own interpretation or analysis — with the strength of the evidence behind it.
Observed market dataStrong evidence· United States· Model years 1996–2025
In an analysis of more than 22 million US used-car sales, white, black, grey and silver together made up 80.4% of 2025 model-year cars, up from 47.3% of 1996 model-year cars, and have stayed close to 80% since the 2020 model year.
Measured: Used cars, model years 1996–2025, sold January 2025 to May 2026.
Caveat: Measures cars that were built and later resold in one country; it does not measure buyer preference or other sectors.
Observed market dataStrong evidence· United States· Model years 1996–2025
In the same series green fell from 13.4% to 2.2% of cars and red from 20.1% to 7.0%, while grey rose from 3.6% to 22.9%.
Measured: Used cars, model years 1996 and 2025.
Caveat: Single-country resale data; model-year shares, not new-car registrations.
FactModerate evidence
Benjamin Moore said it named Breath of Fresh Air its 2014 colour because its team was already seeing the colour across several environments.
Caveat: A statement of the company's reasoning, not a measurement.
Source: Benjamin Moore unveils Breath of Fresh Air (806) as its 2014 Colour of the Year
Colourwise interpretationModerate evidence
Announcements are recorded in the forecast column and car shares in the observed column; a coincidence between the two is not evidence that either caused the other.
Based on: Follows from the car series predating the relevant announcements and from the announcements addressing different sectors.
Reviewed 29 September 2026. Colourwise summarises its sources in its own words and does not reproduce standards text or proprietary colour data. Spotted an error? Tell us.